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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.